Just as sure as August 28 follows August 27, so does the federal census uninsured estimate follow the preliminary release of the DHCFP state survey of the uninsured.
The federal numbers get lots of attention, but as statistics they are particularly problematic. The methodology is acknowledged to be flawed, and the delay between data collection and reporting makes them of little use for real-time policy adjustment.
At the state level, the numbers are even more difficult to use. Because of the sample size being small, the census lumps together multiple years when reporting state figures. So the number for Massachusetts that came out today is the 3-year average of 2004 through 2006.
With all that, here are the numbers: Massachusetts uninsured, 2004-2006: 653,000, or 10.3% of the population. Don’t ask us to compare them to the state numbers released yesterday, because there’s no meaningful comparison.
Nationally, the numbers are a bit more important. The headlines:
- Number of uninsured up by 2.2 million, to 47 million.
- Percent without insurance climbed to 15.8 percent in 2006, compared to 15.3 percent in 2005. The percentage without insurance has increased largely because employer-sponsored insurance coverage has continued to erode.
- The uninsurance rate for children rose from 10.9 percent to 11.7 percent. This should add urgency to the SCHIP debate.
- African-Americans (20.5 percent uninsured) and Hispanics (34 percent) are much more likely to be uninsured than non-Hispanic whites (10.8 percent). Both minority uninsurance rates increased in 2006.
The Mass Budget and Policy Center has good summary of the Massachusetts results and the methodological problems, here. The best national instant analysis of the meaning of the numbers is from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, here.
